Research Library

We returned recently from a trip to India to assess the troubled macro environment in the country. There are certainly some quite serious concerns building – inflation has remained elevated at over 9% (according to the favoured WPI measure, almost certainly higher at the CPI level) while the sense of political paralysis has grown.

In the past month we visited Chile, Peru and Colombia to look for opportunities. We returned with a constructive view on the underlying fundamental story in each of the economies.

We visited Sri Lanka this month for the first time in several years. The country has made great strides since the end of the war in May 2009 and the peace dividend has been substantial. Around 2/3 of the coastline and 1/3 of the land mass has now been opened up for agricultural and industrial development.

We recently visited South Africa, trying to keep an open mind despite our negative preconceptions on the country as an investment destination. Political concerns remain substantial, with ANC Youth leader Julius Malema calling openly for land redistribution, apparently with little opposition from senior party figures.

We recently visited Croatia in search of investment ideas in what will be the latest EU member. The country is in a difficult position, yet to recover from recession following the global downturn with structural problems hampering any recovery. The economy remains plagued by high unemployment which is in turn undermining consumer confidence and a much needed rebound in consumer demand.

Redirecting the Chinese Dragon - with Paul Bate and Chris Spalton.

Indian state banks (or Public Sector Undertakings – PSUs) represent a significant portion of the Indian banking sector’s near $1tn in assets despite the inroads made into the sector by private banks. State Bank of India and its 6 associate banks represent 18% of total assets, while the other 20 nationalised state banks are 39%.

Global installations of photovoltaic solar cells equalled 18.2GW in 2010, twice the level of 2009 and seven times more than in 2008. Total solar capacity stood at 42GW by the end of the year. By comparison, total installed wind capacity stood at 169GW at the end of 2010 after having added 38GW over the year; a 22.5% YoY increase on global capacity.